Copper and Nickel Prices Could Double Within a Decade, Leaving North American Manufacturers Exposed

New Coface Research Projects Aluminum, Copper and Nickel Will Face Supply Deficits Averaging 10% of Demand by 2035 as Metals Trade Restrictions More Than Triple

NEW YORK , NY, UNITED STATES, October 15, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — NEW YORK, N.Y. (October 15, 2026) Prices for copper and nickel could roughly double over the next decade as demand from construction, electrification and clean energy outpaces what mines and refiners can deliver, according to Back to the Future (Cycle), a new industrial metals report from Coface, a global leader in trade credit insurance and risk management. The report projects that aluminum, copper and nickel will face supply deficits averaging around 10% of demand by 2035.

For North American manufacturers, the findings point to a sustained period of higher costs. Coface’s analysis finds that recent metal price increases reflect long-term shifts in both demand and supply rather than a short-term cycle, and that tariff measures introduced by the U.S. over the past year have further tightened the metals market. The report covers steel, aluminum, copper, zinc and nickel, the five metals that make up about 95% of global metals demand by volume. It compares projected supply through 2035 against two demand scenarios. Key findings include:

Demand for the metals behind the power grid is growing faster than supply can keep up.
– Supply growth is running well behind demand. Over the next decade, supply is expected to grow just 0.4% a year for aluminum, 1.0% for copper and 1.5% for nickel. Demand for all three is projected to grow about 1.8% a year, and faster under a net zero scenario.
– Clean energy is claiming a bigger share of the market. Clean energy technologies alone could account for about 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035.
– Electrification already drives most copper use. Close to three-quarters of global copper demand now goes to electrification, and the rapid buildout of data centers is adding to it.

Copper and nickel face the steepest shortfalls, while steel and zinc look more stable.
– Copper could come up short by as much as 17%. Coface projects a refined copper deficit of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tons by 2035, about 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the gap could reach 17%.
– Nickel shows the largest imbalance of any metal studied. Under a net-zero scenario, the refined nickel market could face a deficit of roughly 35% of projected demand, driven largely by battery manufacturing.
– Aluminum’s shortfall is about energy, not geology. A deficit of 5 million to 15 million tons, or about 10% of demand, reflects limits on low-cost electricity and smelting capacity rather than a lack of raw material.
– Steel and zinc should stay more balanced. Both have less exposure to energy transition demand, so price increases are expected to be more moderate.

Supply is concentrated and increasingly shaped by trade policy.
– Trade barriers have more than tripled. By the end of 2025, 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals were in force, up from 357 a decade earlier.
– China controls most refining. China holds around 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals and produces more than half of the world’s steel, aluminum and refined copper.
– New supply is slow and uncertain. Fewer than 1% of exploration projects become working mines, and development timelines of 15 to 20 years limit how fast output can respond to higher prices.

“U.S. tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded,” said Marcos Carias, North America Economist at Coface. “Governments have been restricting metals trade for years, and the U.S. measures add to that pressure at a time when supply is already falling behind demand. For manufacturers in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, that means planning for higher metal costs over the long term instead of waiting for a trade deal to bring prices back down.”

Back to the Future (Cycle) is based on Coface analysis of production, consumption and price data from the London Metal Exchange, the U.S. Geological Survey, the World Bank, the IEA and international metal study groups. The full report is available here.

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