US Faces Projected Physician Shortage of 187,000 by Mid-2030s
The United States is projected to face a deficit of approximately 187,000 physicians by the mid-2030s, attributed to a federal residency funding cap established in 1997.
South Bend Elkhart, IN, September 12, 2026 —
The United States is anticipating a significant shortfall in its physician workforce, with projections indicating a deficit of approximately 187,000 physicians by the mid-2030s. This anticipated shortage is largely attributed to a federal policy that capped funding for medical residency positions. The cap was established in 1997 as part of the Balanced Budget Act, limiting the number of residency slots that Medicare would fund.
This long-standing funding limit has prevented an increase in the number of available training positions, which experts suggest has led to a bottleneck in physician supply. As a result, the nation may struggle to meet the growing healthcare needs of its population in the coming years. The deficit is expected to impact various specialties and geographic regions, potentially affecting patient access to care.
The exact number of physicians needed is an estimate based on current trends in population growth, aging demographics, and the rate at which physicians are entering and exiting the workforce. The specific consequences of this projected shortage, such as increased wait times for appointments or a strain on existing healthcare providers, are subjects of ongoing analysis. The federal residency funding cap remains a key policy lever cited by healthcare analysts and medical organizations when discussing the future physician supply in the United States.
The contractor responsible for the projection or the specific organizations that issued the warning were not detailed in the provided information. Furthermore, the exact timeline for when this deficit might become critically apparent beyond the general mid-2030s projection was not specified. The report focuses on the cumulative effect of the residency funding cap as the primary driver for the impending physician deficit.
Story summarized from the original created by John Mac Ghlionn, opinion contributor on thehill.com, see more information here.
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